Skip to content

How suburbs really sell: 90 days of sales data unpacked

Median sale prices in a suburb are a rearview-mirror number. By the time the ABS or CoreLogic publishes the quarter, the buyers who set those prices have settled and moved on. What moves prices forward is a different set of signals, and they live in the 90 days of data around the top of the market.

The four signals that matter

1. Days on market by price band If the top of a suburb’s market (top 20% of sales) is selling in 14 days or less, the suburb is in acceleration. If days-on-market are stretching past 45 days in that band, the market is cooling ahead of the broader median.

2. Auction clearance rate in the suburb, not the region Corelogic and Domain publish region-wide clearance rates. Suburb-level rates, if you can find them via an agent or via a direct clearance report, are more predictive. A region at 65% clearance can contain suburbs at 85% and suburbs at 45%.

3. Vendor discounting The gap between original list price and sale price. In a rising market, properties sell at or above list. As the market turns, vendors are still listing at the old optimistic price, but sale prices start to drift below. A vendor-discount number moving from 0% to 3-5% over a quarter is a leading indicator of a broader median move.

4. Sale volumes Volume - the number of sales - shifts before median prices. In the last three suburb-level cycles, volumes declined 10-20% ahead of median price declines of 5-10%. Rising volumes in a flat median usually precede a price move up.

Where to find the data

  • Domain Price Finder and Domain Suburb Profile: basic sale history, free
  • CoreLogic RP Data via a broker or agent: deeper data, typically broker/agent access
  • OnTheHouse.com.au: historical prices, free
  • Realestate.com.au’s “Sold” tab: recent sales with photos, useful for quality adjusting

The 90-day look-through

For the suburb you are considering, pull the last 90 days of sales and stratify:

  • Top quartile (most expensive 25%): what sold, how quickly, at what premium to similar non-selling stock?
  • Middle quartile: the workhorse sales, most comparable to what you might buy
  • Bottom quartile: often distressed, tenanted, or sub-par stock

Only the middle quartile is a useful comp for your purchase. But the pace of the top quartile tells you whether the suburb is in acceleration, plateau, or decline.

What this changes in the offer

If your target suburb’s top quartile is clearing in 14 days with minimal discounting, do not low-ball. The vendor has alternatives. If the top quartile has days-on-market stretching to 60 days and discounting is creeping up, you have more room to negotiate.